Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Mozambique Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research article employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Mozambique from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Mozambique to strictly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, scale up educational campaigns among the communities, promote girl child education and fund empowerment programs for youths. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 235-240

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702038

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