International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Mozambique Using Holt’s Linear Method

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 235-240

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702038

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Abstract

This research article employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Mozambique from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Mozambique to strictly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, scale up educational campaigns among the communities, promote girl child education and fund empowerment programs for youths. 

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Mozambique Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 235-240, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702038

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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