Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data of adolescent
fertility rate for Oman from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to
decline to levels below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 by the end of 2030.
Therefore, we encourage authorities in Oman to address local factors which
drive teenage pregnancy and child marriages.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 274-279