Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Oman Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Oman from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline to levels below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Oman to address local factors which drive teenage pregnancy and child marriages.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 274-279

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702045

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