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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Oman Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 274-279

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702045

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Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Oman from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline to levels below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Oman to address local factors which drive teenage pregnancy and child marriages.

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Oman Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 274-279, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702045

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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