International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Panama Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Panama from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.7 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Panama to enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education and fund empowerment programs for youths, and scale up awareness campaigns among communities. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 286-291

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702047

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