Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Senegal Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Senegal from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Senegal to relentlessly support girl child education, women empowerment and scale up awareness campaigns among communities. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 337-343

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702056

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