Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Syria Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Syria from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Syria to address local factors which drive teenage pregnancy in order to avert adverse pregnancy outcomes. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 414-419

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702069

References

  1. UNICEF (2019). Levels and trends in child mortality: report 2019. Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for child mortality estimation. New York: UNICEF.
  2. Felix Cheung., Amanda Kube., Louis Tay., Edward Diener., Joshua J. Jackson., Richard E. Lucas., Michael Y. Ni 1,8,9,10& Gabriel M. Leung (2020). 
  3. Ben Taleb Z. et al (2015). Syria: health in a country undergoing tragic transition. Int. J. Public Health 60(Suppl 1), S63– 72.
  4. Akbarzada S. & Mackey T. K (2018). The Syrian public health and humanitarian crisis: a displacement in global governance? Glob. Public Health 13, 914–930 (2018).
  5. Mokdad A. H. et al (2013). Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet Glob. Health 4, e704–e713 (2016)
  6. Syrian Center for Policy Research (2015). Confronting Fragmentation: Impact of Syrian Crisis Report. http://scprsyria.org/download/1269/?v=1480.
  7. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. During 7 Consecutive Years, about 511 Thousand People Killed since the Start of the Syrian Revolution in 2011. http:// www.syriahr.com/en/?p=86573. (2018).
  8. United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees (2019). Syria Regional Refugee Response. http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php.
  9. United Nations. (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  10. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  11. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  12. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  13. United Nations (2016). Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development.
  14. United Nations (1995). United Nations International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo 5-13 September, 1994. Programme of Action. New York: United Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.