Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data of adolescent
fertility rate for Syria from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to
decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage
authorities in Syria to address local factors which drive teenage pregnancy in
order to avert adverse pregnancy outcomes.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 414-419