Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Thailand Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Thailand from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Thailand to promote girl child education, finance empowerment programs for youths and address local factors that significantly contribute to adolescent pregnancies. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 432-437

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702072

References

  1. Ganchimeg T., Ota E., and Morisaki N (2014). Pregnancy and childbirth outcomes among adolescent mothers: a World Health Organization multicountry study. BJOG. 121 Suppl 1:40-8. 10.1111/1471-0528.12630
  2. UNICEF (2021). Early childbearing. https://data.unicef.org/topic/childhealth/adolescent-health/
  3. World Health Organization (2014). Adolescent pregnancy fact sheet. (2014). https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/112320/WHO_RHR_14.08_eng.pdf.
  4. World Health Organization (2020). Adolescent pregnancy. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/adolescent-pregnancy.
  5. Bain LE., Muftugil-Yalcin S., Amoakoh-Coleman M., Zweekhorst MB., Becquet R., and de Cock Buning T (2020). Decisionmaking preferences and risk factors regarding early adolescent pregnancy in Ghana: stakeholders' and adolescents' perspectives from a vignette-based qualitative study. Reprod Health. 17:141. 10.1186/s12978-020-00992-x
  6. Bureau of Reproductive Health Thailand (2016). The act for prevention and solution of the adolescent pregnancy, B.E. 2559. The Minister of Public Health. http://law.m-society.go.th/ law2016/uploads/lawfile/5906c45567a77.pdf
  7. UNICEF (2015). UNICEF annual report. https://www.unicef.org/ publications/index_92018.html.
  8. National Statistical Office of Thailand (NSOT) (2020). Thailand multiple indicator cluster survey 2019, snapshots of key findings report National statistical office of Thailand. https:// mics-surveys-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/MICS6/East%20Asia%20and%20the%20Pacific/Thailand/2019/Snapshots/Thailand% 202019%20MICS%20Statistical%20Snapshots.
  9. UNICEF (2018). The state of the world’s children 2019 children, food and nutrition: growing well in a changing world. https://www. unicef.org/reports/state-of-worlds-children-2019.
  10. Kumruangrit S. and Srijundee R. (2022). Thai adolescent mothers: perspectives on sexuality education and educational opportunities. Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences Studies 22(2):  273-280.
  11. World Health Organization. (2016). Global Health Estimates 2015: Deaths by Cause, Age, Sex, by Country and by Region, 2000-2015. Geneva: World Health Organization.
  12. World Health Organization. (2018). Adolescent Pregnancy. www.who.int/en/news-room/factsheets/detail/adolescent-pregnancy.
  13. Nabugoomu J., Seruwagi G.K., and Hanning R (2020). What can be done to reduce the prevalence of teen pregnancy in rural Eastern Uganda?: multi-stakeholder perceptions. Reprod Health. 17:134. 10.1186/s12978-02000984-x
  14. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2020). Contraception. https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/contraception/index.htm.