International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Vietnam Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

Adolescent pregnancy remains an important public health issue in Vietnam. Drug and substance abuse, delinquency, adherence to social norms and high risk sexual activity are the most common risk factors for pregnancy among women aged 15-19 years of age. This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Vietnam from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will fall throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Vietnam to continue supporting girl child education, strictly enforce laws to protect women’s rights, scale up educational campaigns among communities and provide affordable and accessible adolescent health services. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 473-479

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702079

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