International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Lesotho Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Lesotho from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.8 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will decline but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Lesotho to establish adolescent friendly clinics which are adequately resourced to address adolescent health issues, enforce laws that protect the sexual and reproductive rights of women and girls, and allocate more funding towards youth empowerment projects to enable youths to contribute towards economic growth and development of this country. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 166-171

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702026

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