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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Lesotho Using Holt’s Linear Method

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 166-171

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702026

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Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Lesotho from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.8 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will decline but still remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Lesotho to establish adolescent friendly clinics which are adequately resourced to address adolescent health issues, enforce laws that protect the sexual and reproductive rights of women and girls, and allocate more funding towards youth empowerment projects to enable youths to contribute towards economic growth and development of this country. 

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Forecasting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Lesotho Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 166-171, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702026

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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