Forecasting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Nepal Using Holt’s Linear Method
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data of
adolescent fertility rate for Nepal from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends
of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to
decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage
authorities in Nepal to persistently enforce laws that protect sexual and
reproductive health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education,
and improve access and quality of adolescent health services.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 252-257
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