International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Forecasting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for the Philippines Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research paper uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate in the Philippines from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate is expected to rise throughout the out of sample period. In order to reverse the projected trend of adolescent fertility, authorities in the Philippines must continuously enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education, fund empowerment programs for youths and scale up awareness campaigns among communities. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 309-314

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702051

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