Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data of adolescent
fertility rate for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to
decline but still remain very high throughout the out of sample period.
Therefore, we encourage authorities in Tanzania to scale up awareness campaigns
among the communities, support girl child education, fund empowerment programs
for youths and strictly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive
health rights of girls and women in order curb child marriages.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 426-431