Forecasting the Future Path of Adolescent Fertility for Tanzania Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Tanzania from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline but still remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Tanzania to scale up awareness campaigns among the communities, support girl child education, fund empowerment programs for youths and strictly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of girls and women in order curb child marriages. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 426-431

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702071

References

  1. United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). Girlhood, not motherhood: preventing adolescent pregnancy. 2015.
  2. World Health Organization (WHO). Adolescent pregnancy fact sheets. 2020;1-4.
  3. Akinbami L. J, Schoendorf K.C, Kiely J. L (2000). Risk of preterm birth in multiparous teenagers. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 154(11): 1101-7.
  4. Galvão R. B., Figueira C. O., Borovac-Pinheiro A., Paulino D. S., Faria-Schützer D. B., and Surita F. G (2018). Hazards of repeat pregnancy during adolescence: a case-control study. Rev Bras Ginecol Obstet. 40(8): 437-43.
  5. Corcoran J (2016). Teenage pregnancy and mental health. Societies. 6(3): 21
  6. Maravilla J.C., Betts K. S, Couto E., Cruz C., and Alati R (2017). Factor´s influencing repeated teenage pregnancy: a review and meta-analysis. Am J Obstet Gynecol. 217(5): 52745.e31
  7. World Health Organization (2004). Adolescent pregnancy: issues in adolescent health and development. WHO: Geneva, Switzerland. 2004. Google Scholar 8. Cook SM, Cameron ST. Social issues of teenage pregnancy. Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Medicine. 30(10): 309-314
  8. Cook S. M., and Cameron ST (2020). Social issues of teenage pregnancy. Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Medicine. 30(10): 309-314.
  9. Madeni F., Horiuchi S., and Iida M (2011). Evaluation of a reproductive health awareness program for adolescence in urban Tanzania--a quasi-experimental pre-test post-test research. Reproductive Health. 8:21
  10. Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey (TDHS) 2015/16.
  11. Jennifer McCleary-Sills., Zayid Douglas., Annagrace Rwehumbiza., Aziza Hamisi & Richard Mabala (2013). Gendered norms, sexual exploitation and adolescent pregnancy in rural Tanzania. Reproductive Health Matters, 21:41, 97-105, DOI: 10.1016/S09688080 (13) 41682-8.