International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Holt’s Linear Method Use in Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Jordan

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 141-146

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702022

pdf iconFull Text PDF
Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Jordan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will hover around 25 births per 1000 women aged 15-19years throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage policy makers in Jordan to establish more adolescent friendly clinics that are well resourced to attend to the various adolescent health problems and address all the existing problems which contribute to teenage pregnancies.

Keywords

.


Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Holt’s Linear Method Use in Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for Jordan” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 141-146, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702022

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
References
  1. United Nations (2015). transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development, A/RES/70/1. New York: UN General Assembly.
  2. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  3. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  4. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  5. United Nations (2016). Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development.
  6. United Nations (1995). United Nations International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo 5-13 September, 1994. Programme of Action. New York: United Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.
  7. Muna Maharjan., Niresh Thapa., Narayani Maharjan., Pabita Rai., Prakash Pun., Marcia A Petrini.,and Jiong Yang (2019). Prevalence of Teenage Pregnancy in aCommunity Hospital of Rural Nepal: A Cross-sectional Study. J Nepal Med Assoc 57(217):176-180
  8. Abdulla Salim Bin Ghouth., Ahlam Saleh Bin Break., Adnan Ali Melkat., Amer Salmeen Belafair (2017). Profile of Teenage Pregnancy in Hadramout, Yemen.Journal of women’s reproductive health. 1(4):1,  DOI : 10.14302/issn.2381-862X.jwrh-16-1292
  9. Althabe F., Moore J.L., Gibbons L., Berrueta M., Goudar S.S., Chomba E., Derman R.J., Patel A., Saleem S., and Pasha O (2015). Adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes in adolescent pregnancies: The Global Network's Maternal Newborn Health Registry study. Reprod Health. 12(Suppl 2):S8.
  10. Ganchimeg T., Ota E., Morisaki N., Laopaiboon M., Lumbiganon P., Zhang J., Yamdamsuren B., Temmerman M., Say L., and Tuncalp O (2014). Pregnancy and childbirth outcomes among adolescent mothers: a World Health Organization multicountry study. BJOG. 121(Suppl 1):40–8.
  11. Malabarey O.T., Balayla J., Klam S.L., Shrim A.,and Abenhaim HA. Pregnancies in young adolescent mothers: a population-based study on 37 million births. J Pediatr Adolesc Gynecol. 25(2):98–102.
  12. Gibbs C.M., Wendt A., Peters S., and Hogue C.J (2012). The impact of early age at first childbirth on maternal and infant health. Paediatr Perinat Epidemiol. 2012; 26(Suppl 1):259–84
  13. Larsson M., Aneblom G., Odlind V., and Tydén T (2002). Reasons for pregnancy termination, contraceptive habits and contraceptive failure among Swedish women requesting an early pregnancy termination. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand. 81(1):64–71. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.0001-6349.2001.00169.x.
  14. Sedgh G., Ashford L.S., and Hussain R (2016). Unmet need for contraception in developing countries: examining women’s reasons for not using a method. New York: Guttmacher Institute. 2:2015-6.
  15. Joyce T. Shatilwe., Khumbulani Hlongwana.,and Tivani P. Mashamba‑Thompson (2022). Pregnant adolescents and nurses perspectives on accessibility and utilization of maternal and child health information in Ohangwena Region, Namibia. BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth          (2022) 22:284  https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-022-04619-w
  16. Alexandra Vasconcelos., Nelson Bandeira., Swasilanne Sousa., Maria Céu Machado and Filomena Pereira (2022).Adolescent pregnancy in Sao Tome and Principe: are there different obstetric and perinatal outcomes?BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth          (2022) 22:453  https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-022-04779-9
  17. Betelhem Eshetu Birhanu., Deresse Legesse Kebede., Alemayehu Bayray Kahsay and Abate Bekele Belachew (2019). Predictors of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia: a multilevel analysis. BMC Public Health         (2019) 19:601 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-6845-7
  18. Betregiorgis Zegeye., Bright Opoku Ahinkorah., Dina Idriss-Wheeler., Comfort Z. Olorunsaiye4, Nicholas Kofi Adjei5 and Sanni Yaya6 (2021). Modern contraceptive utilization and its associated factors among married women in Senegal: a multilevel analysis. BMC Public Health         (2021) 21:231 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10252-7
  19. Ibrahim Yakubu and Waliu Jawula Salisu (2018). Determinants of adolescent pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review. Reproductive Health (2018) 15:15 DOI 10.1186/s12978-018-0460-4
  20. Ghazaleh Samandari., Carolyn Grant., Lily Brent and Sara Gullo (2019).“It is a thing that depends on God”: barriers to delaying first birth and pursuing alternative futures among newly married adolescent girls in Niger. Reproductive Health (2019) 16:109 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-019-0757-y.

Copyright @ 2026 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Licensed underCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.