Illustrating the Suitability of Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique in Forecasting Adolescent Fertility for the West Bank and Gaza

Public health policy-making is heavily dependent on reliable and accurate research evidence generated by various authors across the world. This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for the West Bank and Gaza from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will to decline from 49 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years in 2021 to around 40 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in the West Bank and Gaza to relentlessly support girl child education and women empowerment, protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls and offer affordable and accessible adolescent health services.