Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
Public health policy-making is heavily dependent on reliable
and accurate research evidence generated by various authors across the world.
This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for the
West Bank and Gaza from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent
fertility over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear
exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β
are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study
indicate that annual adolescent fertility will to decline from 49 births per
1000 women aged 15-19 years in 2021 to around 40 births per 1000 women aged
15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage authorities in the West
Bank and Gaza to relentlessly support girl child education and women
empowerment, protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls
and offer affordable and accessible adolescent health services.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 480-485