Predicting Adolescent Fertility for Liberia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Liberia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage policy makers in Liberia to address socio-cultural, economic and geographic factors that significantly contribute to teenage pregnancies. There is need to enforce laws that protect the rights of women and girls, promote girl child education and establish adolescent friendly health facilities that will provide affordable comprehensive sexual and reproductive health services.