International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Prediction of Adolescent Fertility for Maldives Using Holt’s Linear Method

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 200-204

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702032

pdf iconFull Text PDF
Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Maldives from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are0.9 and0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will remain low throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Maldives to continue providing funding for adolescent health services and address local problems that lead to teenage pregnancies. 

Keywords

.


Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Prediction of Adolescent Fertility for Maldives Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 200-204, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702032

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
References
  1. Ministry of Health (MOH) [Maldives] and ICF. 2018. Maldives Demographic and Health Survey 2016-17. Malé, Maldives, and Rockville, Maryland, USA: MOH and ICF.
  2. World Health Organization (2014). Adolescent pregnancy. Factsheets. Available at: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs364/en/
  3. Ganchimeg T., Ota E., and Morisaki N (2014). Pregnancy and childbirth outcomes among adolescent mothers: a World Health Organization multicounty study. BJOG. 121Suppl:40–8.
  4. Islam M.M., Islam M.K., and Hasan MS (2017). Adolescent motherhood in Bangladesh: Trends and determinants. PLoS One. 12(11):1–14.
  5. Pradhan R., Wynter K., and Fisher J (2018). Factors associated with pregnancy among married adolescents in Nepal: secondary analysis of the NationalDemographicandHealthSurveysfrom2001to2011.IntJEnvironResPublic Health. 15(229):12.
  6. Poudel S., Upadhaya N., and Khatri R.B (2018). Trends and factors associated with pregnancies among adolescent women in Nepal: pooled analysis of Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys(2006, 2011and 2016). PLoS One. 13(8):1–13.
  7. Grønvik T., and Fossgard Sandøy I (2018). Complications associated with adolescent child bearing in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. PLoS One. 13(9):e0204327.
  8. Wall-Wieler E., Lee J.B., Nickel N (2019). The multigenerational effects of adolescent motherhood on school readiness: a population-based retrospective cohort study. PLoSOne. 14(2):e0211284.
  9. World Health Organization (2020). Preventing early pregnancy through appropriate legal, social and economic measures. https: //www.who.int/reproductivehealth/topics/adolescence/laws/en/.
  10. Kassa G.M., Arowojolu A.O., and Odukogbe AA (2019). Adverse neonatal outcomes of adolescent pregnancy in northwest Ethiopia. PLoS One. 2019;14(6):e0218259.

Copyright @ 2026 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Licensed underCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.