Projecting Adolescent Fertility for Russia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Russia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline to reach levels below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage the Russian government to persistently protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and children, promote girl child education and continue supporting the national family planning program.