Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This study uses annual time series data of adolescent
fertility rate for Russia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of
adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes
Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing
constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The
results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will
continue to decline to reach levels below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19
years by the end of 2030. Therefore, we encourage the Russian government to
persistently protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and
children, promote girl child education and continue supporting the national
family planning program.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 320-325