Projecting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Mali Using Holt’s Linear Method

This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Mali from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.8 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility is expected to decline but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Mali to strictly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and children, promote girl child education and improve on the accessibility and affordability of adolescent health services especially in the remote areas of the country and scale up campaigns among communities.