International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Projecting Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Tunisia Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research paper employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility for Tunisia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.7 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will hover around 7.9 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Tunisia to continue supporting girl child education and enforcing laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 444-448

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702074

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