International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for St Vincent and the Grenadines Using Holt’s Linear Method

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 389-394

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702065

pdf iconFull Text PDF
Abstract

This research paper uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for St Vincent and the Grenadines from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.4 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in the country to enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive health rights of women, promote girl child education and provide accessible and affordable adolescent health services. 

Keywords

.


Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for St Vincent and the Grenadines Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 389-394, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702065
Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
References
  1. Kennedy D (2017). Echidna Global Scholars Program Jamaica’s Policy for the School Reintegration of School-Age Mothers How Are We Doing and Where Do We Need to Go?; 2017
  2. United Nations Population Funds (UNFPA). Adolescent pregnancy: A review of the evidence; 2013.
  3. Glassman A., Silverman R., and McQueston  K (2012). Adolescent Fertility in Low- and Middle Income Countries: Effects and Solutions. Cent Glob Dev Work. 2012: 295.
  4. Ahorlu C.K., Pfeiffer C., and Obrist B (2015). Socio-cultural and economic factors influencing adolescents' resilience against the threat of teenage pregnancy: a cross-sectional survey in Accra, Ghana. Reprod Health. 2015; 12:117.
  5. Kumi-Kyereme A., Awusabo-Asare K., nd Darteh EK (2014). Attitudes of gatekeepers towards adolescent sexual and reproductive health in Ghana. Afr J Reprod Health. 18(3):142–53.
  6. Mushwana L., Monareng L., Richter S., and Muller H (2015). Factors influencing the adolescent pregnancy rate in the Greater Giyani municipality, Limpopo Province - South Africa. Int J Afr Nurs Sci. 2015; 2:10–8.
  7. A Yidana., S.D Ziblim., T.B Azongo., and Abass Y.I (2015). Socio-cultural determinants of contraceptives use among adolescents in northern Ghana. Public Health Res. 5(4):83–89.
  8. Adinma J.I., Agbai A.O., Okeke., and Okaro J.M (1999). Contraception in teenage Nigerian school girls. Adv Contracept. 15(4):283–91.
  9. Ahlberg B.M., Jylkas E., and Krantz I (2001). Gendered construction of sexual risks: implications for safer sex among young people in Kenya and Sweden. Reprod Health Matters. 9(17):26–36.
  10. Woog V., and Kagesten A (2017). The sexual and reproductive health needs of very young adolescents in developing countries. Guttmarcher Inst. https:// www. guttmacher.org/ fact- sheet/ srh- needs- very- young- adolescents- in- developing- countries.
  11. Margret Greene T.M (2015). The case for investing in research to increase access to and use of contraception among adolescents. 2015;1–80. https:// www. usaid.gov/ sites/ default/ files/.../ RH_ adol contraception_ rpt_ 508. pdf.
  12. Tebeu P.M., Fomulu J.N., Khaddaj S., De B.L., Delvaux T., and Rochat C.H (2012). Risk factors for obstetric fistula : a clinical review. Int Urogynecol. 23:387–94
  13. World Health Organization (2014). Adolescent pregnancy factsheet.  http://www. who. int/ mediacentre/ factsheets/ fs364/ en/
  14. Ganchimeg T., Ota E., Morisaki N (2014). Pregnancy and childbirth outcomes among adolescent mothers: a World Health Organization multicountry study. BJOG: Int J Obstet Gy. 121(Suppl. 5):40–8.
  15. Chandra-Mouli V., Camacho A.V., and Michaud P.A (2013). WHO guidelines on preventing early pregnancy and poor reproductive outcomes among adolescents in developing countries. J Adolesc Health. 52:517–22.

Copyright @ 2026 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Licensed underCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.