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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Tajikistan Using Holt’s Linear Method

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 420-425

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702070

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Abstract

This research paper employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Tajikistan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility is expected to increase throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Tajikistan to scale up educational campaigns among communities, support girl child education, promote and uphold women’s rights and provide accessible and affordable adolescent SRH services. 

Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Tajikistan Using Holt’s Linear Method” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 420-425, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702070

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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