International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Tajikistan Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research paper employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Tajikistan from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.9 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility is expected to increase throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Tajikistan to scale up educational campaigns among communities, support girl child education, promote and uphold women’s rights and provide accessible and affordable adolescent SRH services. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 420-425

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702070

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