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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Zambia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 492-498

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702082

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Abstract
Adolescent pregnancy and child birth is a huge problem in the developing world including Zambia. This public health problem has drown much research interest because pregnancy among adolescents is associated with a higher risk of adverse sexual and reproductive health outcomes. This research uses annual time series data on adolescent fertility rate for Zambia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to drop but remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Zambia to persistently support girl child education, enforce laws that safeguard sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls and finance youth empowerment projects. 
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Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Zambia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 492-498, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702082

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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