Tracking Future Trends of Adolescent Fertility for Zambia Using Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique
Abstract
Adolescent pregnancy and child birth is a huge
problem in the developing world including Zambia. This public health problem
has drown much research interest because pregnancy among adolescents is
associated with a higher risk of adverse sexual and reproductive health
outcomes. This research uses annual time series data on adolescent fertility
rate for Zambia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility
rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential
smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and
0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual
adolescent fertility will continue to drop but remain high throughout the out
of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Zambia to persistently
support girl child education, enforce laws that safeguard sexual and
reproductive health rights of women and girls and finance youth empowerment
projects.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 492-498
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