International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking Progress towards the Substantial Reduction of Adolescent Fertility for Mexico Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Mexico from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.3 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Mexico to enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive rights of women and girls, establish adolescent friendly clinics in marginalized regions and promote youth empowerment programs. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 223-228

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702036

Full Paper
Download

References

  1. PAHO (2017). Pan American Health Organization.  https://www.paho.org/salud-en-las-americas-2017/?tag=adolescent  Robles
  2. UNFPA (2013). Motherhood in Childhood Facing the Challenge of Adolescent Pregnancy. New York, NY: The United Nations Population Fund.
  3. UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World population prospects 2019. https://population.un.org/wpp/
  4. Rodríguez Vignoli J (2017). Fecundidad no deseada entre las adolescentes latino americanas: Un aumento que desafía la salud sexual y reproductiva y el ejercicio de derechos.http://hdl. handle.net/11362/42511
  5. Sedgh G., Finer L.B, Bankole A (2015). Adolescent pregnancy, birth, and abortion rates across countries: levels and recent trends. J Adolesc Health. 56:223–30
  6. Berthelon M., and Kruger D.I (2017). Does adolescent motherhood affect education and labor market outcomes of mothers? A study on young adult women in Chile during 1990- 2013. Int J Public Health. 62:293–303.
  7. Fall C.H.D., Sachdev H.S, Osmond C (2015). Association between maternal age at childbirth and child and adult outcomes in the offspring: a prospective study in five low- income and middle- income countries. Lancet Glob Health. 3:e366–77.
  8. Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO) (2018). Proyecciones de la población de México y de las entidades federativas 2016- 2050. Infografia. Ciudad de México.
  9. Reyes- Pablo A.E., Navarrete- Hernández E., Canún- Serrano S (2015). [Percentage of births and fertility rates in adolescents in Mexico (2008- 2012): stratification and prioritization of municipalities with high risk. Ginecol Obstet Mex. 83:760–9
  10. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion. Estrategia Nacional para La Prevención del Embarazo en Adolescentes. Mexico City, 2015.
  11. Saavedra- Avendano B., Andrade- Romo Z., and Rodriguez MI (2017). Adolescents and long- acting reversible contraception: lessons from Mexico. Matern Child Health J. 21:1724–33.
  12. Lawlor D.A., and Shaw M (2004). Teenage pregnancy rates: high compared with where and when? J R Soc Med. 97:121–3.
  13. Johnson M., Myors K., and Langdon R(2001). Coping styles of pregnant adolescents. Public Health Nurs. 18:24–32.
  14. Papri F.S., Khanam Z., Ara S (2016). Adolescent pregnancy: risk factors, outcome and prevention. Chatt Maa Shi Hosp Med Coll J. 15:53–6.
  15. Ayanaw HabituY., YalewA., and Azale BisetegnT (2017). Prevalence and factors associated with teenage pregnancy, northeast Ethiopia, 2017: a cross- sectional study. J Pregnancy. 2018:1714527–7.
  16. Sserwanja Q., and Kawuki J (2020). Prevalence of underweight and associated factors among lactating women in Ethiopia: a mini- review. Journal of Advances in Medicine and Medical Research. 2020; 32:1–9.
  17. Sserwanja Q., Musaba M.W., and Mukunya D (2021). Prevalence and factors associated with modern contraceptives utilization among female adolescents in Uganda. BMC Womens Health 2021; 21:61.
  18. EnvuladuE.A,AgboHA,Ohize VA (2014). Determinants and outcome of teenage pregnancy in a rural community in Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria. Sub-Saharan Afr J Med. 1(1): 48–52.
  19. Uwaezuoke A.I., Uzochukwu B.S, Nwagbo DF (2004). Determinants of teenage pregnancy in rural communities of Abia State, South East Nigeria. Int J Med Health Dev. 9(1): 28–33.

Copyright @ 2026-2017 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Developed by Byzero Technologies