International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking the Future Path of Adolescent Fertility for Papua New Gunea Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

This research article uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Papua New Guinea from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will continue to decline throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Papua New Guinea to relentlessly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, scale up educational campaigns among communities and promote girl child education. 

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 292-297

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702048

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