Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
This research article employs annual time series data of
adolescent fertility rate for South Asia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future
trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study
utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of
smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE.
The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will sharply
decline to levels below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years in the out of
sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in South Asia to
continuously promote girl child education, enforce laws that protect sexual and
reproductive health rights of girls and women and scale up campaigns against
early child marriage and gender based violence.
Country : Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 367-372