Tracking the Future Path of Adolescent Fertility for South Asia Using Holt’s Linear Method

This research article employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for South Asia from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will sharply decline to levels below 10 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years in the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in South Asia to continuously promote girl child education, enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of girls and women and scale up campaigns against early child marriage and gender based violence.