International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Tracking the Future Path of Adolescent Fertility for the United Kingdom Using Holt’s Linear Method

Abstract

The burden of teenage pregnancy in Western Europe is reportedly highest in the UK and has been found to have a geographic variation. This study employs annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for the United Kingdom (UK) from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility will continue to drop to levels below 5 births per 1000 women aged 15-19 years by the end of 2030.Therefore, we encourage authorities in the United Kingdom to address local factors that contribute to teenage pregnancies so as to avert adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 pp. 455-460

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702076

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