International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Utilizing Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique to Draft Effective Adolescent Health Policies to Address High Teenage Pregnancy Rates and Child Births in Niger

Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 2 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 2, February 2023 | Pages: 263-268

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-03-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.702043

pdf iconFull Text PDF
Abstract

This study uses annual time series data of adolescent fertility rate for Niger from 1960 to 2020 to predict future trends of adolescent fertility rate over the period 2021 to 2030. The study utilizes Holt’s linear exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.2 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that annual adolescent fertility rate will decline but remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities in Niger to strictly enforce laws that protect sexual and reproductive health rights of women and girls, promote girl child education, scale up awareness campaigns among communities and provide funding for youth empowerment projects. 

Keywords

.


Citation of this Article

Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Utilizing Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing Technique to Draft Effective Adolescent Health Policies to Address High Teenage Pregnancy Rates and Child Births in Niger” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 2, pp 263-268, February 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2022.702043

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
References
  1. WHO (2012). Early Marriages, Adolescent and Young Pregnancies; World Health Organization: Geneva, Switzerland. pp. 1–4.
  2. Kassa, G.M., Arowojolu A.O., Odukogbe A.A., and Yalew A.W (2018). Prevalence and determinants of adolescent pregnancy in Africa: A systematic review and Meta-analysis. Reprod. Health 2018, 15, 195.
  3. Pradhan R., Wynter K., and Fisher J (2018). Factors Associated with Pregnancy among Married Adolescents in Nepal: Secondary Analysis of the National Demographic and Health Surveys from 2001 to 2011. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 229
  4. Mehra D., Sarkar A., Sreenath P., Behera J., and Mehra S (2018). Effectiveness of a community based intervention to delay early marriage, early pregnancy and improve school retention among adolescents in India. BMC Public Health 2018, 18, 732
  5. Sama C.B., Ngasa S.N., Dzekem, B.S., and Choukem, S.P (2017). Prevalence, predictors and adverse outcomes of adolescent pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa: A protocol of a systematic review. Syst. Rev. 2017, 6, 247.
  6. United Nations (2011). Department of Economics. The Millennium Development Goals Report 2011. Geneva: United Nations Publications.
  7. Neal S., Matthews Z., Frost M., Fogstad H., Camacho AV., and Laski L (2012). Childbearing in adolescents aged 12–15 years in low resource countries: a neglected issue. New estimates from demographic and household surveys in 42 countries. Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand. 91(9):1114–8.
  8. Castle S (2003). Factors influencing young Malians’ reluctance to use hormonal contraceptives. Stud Fam Plan. 34(3):186–99.
  9. Hindin M. J., and Fatusi A.O (2009). Adolescent sexual and reproductive health in developing countries: an overview of trends and interventions. Int Perspect Sex Reprod Health. 35(2):58–62.
  10. Williamson L. M., Parkes A., Wight D., Petticrew M., and Hart G.J. Limits to modern contraceptive use among young women in developing countries: a systematic review of qualitative research. Reprod Health. 6(1):3.
  11. DeRose L.F., and Ezeh A. C (2010). Decision-making patterns and contraceptive use: evidence from Uganda. Popul Res Policy Rev. 29(3):423–39.
  12. Cau B. M (2015). Community influences on contraceptive use in Mozambique. Health Place. 31:10–6.
  13. Chandra-Mouli V., McCarraher D. R., Phillips S.J., Williamson NE., and Hainsworth G (2014). Contraception for adolescents in low and middle income countries: needs, barriers, and access. Reprod Health.11(1):1.
  14. Mmari K. N., and Magnani R.J (2003). Does making clinic-based reproductive health services more youth-friendly increase service use by adolescents? Evidence from Lusaka, Zambia. J Adolesc Health. 33(4):259–70.
  15. Biddlecom A.E., Singh S., and Munthali A (2007). Adolescents’ views of and preferences for sexual and reproductive health services in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Malawi and Uganda. Afr J Reprod Health. 11(3):99–110.
  16. Ahanonu E. L (2014). Attitudes of healthcare providers towards providing contraceptives for unmarried adolescents in Ibadan, Nigeria. J Family Reprod Health. 8(1):33.
  17. Institut National de la Statistique (INS) et ICF International, Enquête Démographique et de Santé et à Indicateurs Multiples du Niger 2012. Calverton: INS et ICF International; 2013.

Copyright @ 2026 IRJIET. All Right Reserved.

Licensed underCreative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.