The Impact of Some Monetary Variables on the General Budget Deficit in Iraq for the Period 1990-2021

Abstract

Issues of deficit in public budgets are of great importance in academic studies and research, whether in developed or developing countries alike. The fact that the success of these countries is measured by the success of the effectiveness of their financial, economic and social policies, and the phenomenon of deficit in the public budget is one of the most important global phenomena; It is almost rare to find a country that does not suffer from this phenomenon. In the case of developed countries, the deficit in their public budgets is linked to the economic cycle. In the case of developing countries, the deficit in their general budgets has turned into a continuous characteristic closely related to the characteristics of the countries' economies, in addition to being an indication of the existence of a structural imbalance in them. The study aims to measure and analyze the impact of some monetary variables on the public budget deficit and surplus in Iraq, and using the (EViews-12) program, the unit root test (dormancy) was conducted as a preliminary step to determine the rank (degree) of variables integration for the purpose of choosing the estimation model, by applying the test The developed Dickey-Fuller Test, and the detection of a co-integration using the Bound Test methodology. Thus, the Autoregressive Distributed Time Lapse (ARDL) model was used to measure the effects in the long term and the short term. The study covered annual data for a time series spanning 32 years for the period (1990-2021), relying on official data issued by the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Iraqi Ministry of Planning, the Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COS).

Country : Lebanon

1 Alauldeen Khazaal Mohammed Ali Jarjees2 Prof. Dr. Mohammed Hisham Baloza

  1. AUCE - American University of Culture & Education, Lebanon
  2. AUCE - American University of Culture & Education, Lebanon

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 5, May 2023 pp. 83-98

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.705010

References

  1. Al-Hassani, Ahmed Kazem, 2017, The role of real estate revenues in financing the state’s general budget, Al-Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, Volume 8, Number 1, College of Administration and Economics, Al-Muthanna University, Samawah, Iraq.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2007, Public Fiscal Transparency Guide, Washington, USA.
  3. Taqa, Muhammad and Al-Azzawi, Huda, 2010, Economics of Public Finance, second edition, Dar Al-Masirah for Publishing and Distribution, Amman, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
  4. Abdul Hussein Jalil Al-Ghalbi, Sawsan Karim Al-Jubouri. (2008). The effect of money supply measures on some macroeconomic variables in a sample of developed countries, Al-Ghari Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Volume 2, Number 10.
  5. Abd, Bashar Saadi, 2018, The Impact of the Interest Rate on the Iraqi General Budget for the Period 1990-2015, Journal of the College of Administration and Economics for Economic, Administrative and Financial Studies, Volume 10, Number 4, College of Administration and Economics, University of Babylon, Babylon, Iraq.
  6. Atlam, Baher and Al-Sayed, Sami, 2002, Public Finance and the Role of the Public Sector in Achieving Economic Welfare, Egypt, Cairo, Dar Al Taawun for Printing.
  7. Atwi, Fawzi, 2003, Public Finance, Tax Systems and the State Budget, Al-Halabi Human Rights Publications, Lebanon.
  8. Al-Akkam, Muhammad Khair, 2018, Public Finance, Bachelor of Laws, from the publications of the Syrian Virtual University, Syrian Arab Republic.
  9. Ali, Tobin, 2015, The budget deficit and its effects between theory and practice, New Economy Journal, Issue 13, Volume 2.
  10. Al-Karkhi, Majeed Abd Jaafar, 1999, The concept of the general budget of the state - and its methods of preparation - and its modern trends, Part One, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq.
  11. Wali, Sabreen Adnan and Kazem, Eman Alaa, 2020, The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the General Budget of Iraq: A Case Study for the Period (2004-2018), Hammurabi Journal, Issue 35, Year 8, Baghdad, Iraq.
  12. Aronson, J. Richard, 2008, Public Finance, McGraw Hill.