Impact Factor (2025): 6.9
DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET
Issues of
deficit in public budgets are of great importance in academic studies and
research, whether in developed or developing countries alike. The fact that the
success of these countries is measured by the success of the effectiveness of
their financial, economic and social policies, and the phenomenon of deficit in
the public budget is one of the most important global phenomena; It is almost
rare to find a country that does not suffer from this phenomenon. In the case
of developed countries, the deficit in their public budgets is linked to the
economic cycle. In the case of developing countries, the deficit in their
general budgets has turned into a continuous characteristic closely related to
the characteristics of the countries' economies, in addition to being an
indication of the existence of a structural imbalance in them. The study aims
to measure and analyze the impact of some monetary variables on the public
budget deficit and surplus in Iraq, and using the (EViews-12) program, the unit
root test (dormancy) was conducted as a preliminary step to determine the rank
(degree) of variables integration for the purpose of choosing the estimation
model, by applying the test The developed Dickey-Fuller Test, and the detection
of a co-integration using the Bound Test methodology. Thus, the Autoregressive
Distributed Time Lapse (ARDL) model was used to measure the effects in the long
term and the short term. The study covered annual data for a time series
spanning 32 years for the period (1990-2021), relying on official data issued
by the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Iraqi
Ministry of Planning, the Central Organization for Statistics and Information
Technology (COS).
Country : Lebanon
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 5, May 2023 pp. 83-98