The Impact of Some Monetary Variables on the General Budget Deficit in Iraq for the Period 1990-2021

Issues of deficit in public budgets are of great importance in academic studies and research, whether in developed or developing countries alike. The fact that the success of these countries is measured by the success of the effectiveness of their financial, economic and social policies, and the phenomenon of deficit in the public budget is one of the most important global phenomena; It is almost rare to find a country that does not suffer from this phenomenon. In the case of developed countries, the deficit in their public budgets is linked to the economic cycle. In the case of developing countries, the deficit in their general budgets has turned into a continuous characteristic closely related to the characteristics of the countries' economies, in addition to being an indication of the existence of a structural imbalance in them. The study aims to measure and analyze the impact of some monetary variables on the public budget deficit and surplus in Iraq, and using the (EViews-12) program, the unit root test (dormancy) was conducted as a preliminary step to determine the rank (degree) of variables integration for the purpose of choosing the estimation model, by applying the test The developed Dickey-Fuller Test, and the detection of a co-integration using the Bound Test methodology. Thus, the Autoregressive Distributed Time Lapse (ARDL) model was used to measure the effects in the long term and the short term. The study covered annual data for a time series spanning 32 years for the period (1990-2021), relying on official data issued by the World Bank (WB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Iraqi Ministry of Planning, the Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COS).