Addressing Adverse Neonatal Health Outcomes in Jordan Using Scientific Evidence Generated by the ARIMA Model

This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Jordan from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (I) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,1,2) model. The findings of study indicate that neonatal mortality will slightly decrease from around 9 in 2020 to 7 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030.Therefore, policy makers in Jordan should craft country specific neonatal policies to keep neonatal deaths under control by ensuring availability of trained medical staff &medical supplies, and strengthening the referral system.