Addressing Low Neonatal Survival Rates in Cote D’lvoire Using Empirical Evidence from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Cote d’lvoire from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,1,2) model. The ARIMA model predictions suggest that NMR will decline from around 32 in 2020 to around 27 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. We, therefore encourage the authorities in this country to design effective neonatal policies to control neonatal deaths. Special attention should be given to retention of health professionals, capacitating primary health care and strengthening the referral system.