Addressing Low Neonatal Survival Rates in Cote D’lvoire Using Empirical Evidence from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Cote d’lvoire from 1960 to 2019 to predict
future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown
that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model
based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,1,2) model. The ARIMA model predictions suggest
that NMR will decline from around 32 in 2020 to around 27 deaths per 1000 live
births by the end of 2030. We, therefore encourage the authorities in this
country to design effective neonatal policies to control neonatal deaths. Special attention should be given to retention of health
professionals, capacitating primary health care and strengthening the referral
system.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 248-255
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