International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Analyzing Expected Future Trends of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Mexico Using Forecast Values Produced By the ARIMA Model

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 8 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 | Pages: 364-368

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-09-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708054

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Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Mexico from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (5,1,4) model. The findings of this piece of work showed that neonatal mortality is anticipated to decline from approximately 8 in 2020 to around 5 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Hence, the Mexican government should draft and implement locally designed policies that will help tackle various causes of neonatal mortality in the country.
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Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Analyzing Expected Future Trends of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Mexico Using Forecast Values Produced By the ARIMA Model” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, pp 364-368, August 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708054  

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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