Approximation of Anticipated Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rates for Tunisia Using the ARIMA Model
Abstract
This study utilizes annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Tunisia from 1965 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (3,2,2) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal
mortality is expected to remain below 12 deaths per 1000 live births throughout
the forecast period. Therefore, authorities in Tunisia are encouraged to
address local issues that contribute to neonatal deaths especially in
marginalized regions of the country.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
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