Assessing the Feasibility of Ending All Preventable Neonatal Deaths by the End of 2030 in India Using Empirical Evidence Obtained from the ARIMA Model
Abstract
Dying of newborns between the time of birth and
28 days of life is still a huge public health problem in South Asia including
India. Over the period 2000-2017 neonatal mortality dropped from 38 deaths per
1000 live births to 23.5 deaths per 1000 live births. The main causes of this
mortality are prematurity, asphyxia, sepsis and congenital anomalies.
Prediction of future trends of neonatal mortality will inform neonatal
policies, decisions, planning and resource mobilization for the improvement of
the quality of healthcare services during antenatal, delivery and postnatal
periods. This research utilizes annual time series data on neonatal mortality
rate (NMR) for India from 1969 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the
period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under
consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA
(0,2,5) model. The findings of the study revealed that neonatal mortality will
gradually decline from around 21 in 2020 to approximately 13 deaths per 1000
live births by the end of 2030.Therefore, Indian authorities are encouraged to
design appropriate neonatal policies to address the problem of neonatal deaths
with particular attention being given to promotion of institutional deliveries,
improving health infrastructure in marginalized regions, ensuring availability
of qualified medical staff and strengthening the referral system.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 291-295
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