Assessing the Feasibility of Ending All Preventable Neonatal Deaths by the End of 2030 in India Using Empirical Evidence Obtained from the ARIMA Model

Dying of newborns between the time of birth and 28 days of life is still a huge public health problem in South Asia including India. Over the period 2000-2017 neonatal mortality dropped from 38 deaths per 1000 live births to 23.5 deaths per 1000 live births. The main causes of this mortality are prematurity, asphyxia, sepsis and congenital anomalies. Prediction of future trends of neonatal mortality will inform neonatal policies, decisions, planning and resource mobilization for the improvement of the quality of healthcare services during antenatal, delivery and postnatal periods. This research utilizes annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for India from 1969 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (0,2,5) model. The findings of the study revealed that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from around 21 in 2020 to approximately 13 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030.Therefore, Indian authorities are encouraged to design appropriate neonatal policies to address the problem of neonatal deaths with particular attention being given to promotion of institutional deliveries, improving health infrastructure in marginalized regions, ensuring availability of qualified medical staff and strengthening the referral system.