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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Calculating Expected Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Yemen Using the ARIMA Model

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 8 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 | Pages: 519-526

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-09-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708075

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Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Yemen from 1962 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,2,5) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal mortality is expected to slightly increase and remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, it is crucial for the authorities in Yemen to design and implement appropriate neonatal policies to urgently address causes of neonatal deaths across the country. Strategies should focus on improving the quality, affordability and accessibility of maternal and neonatal healthcare services.
Keywords

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Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Calculating Expected Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Yemen Using the ARIMA Model” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, pp 519-526, August 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708075

Licence Copyright (c) 2026 International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology creative common licence This work is licensed under Creative common Attribution Non Commercial 4.0 Internation Licence
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