Calculating Expected Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Yemen Using the ARIMA Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Yemen from 1962 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (2,2,5) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal
mortality is expected to slightly increase and remain high throughout the out
of sample period. Therefore, it is crucial for the authorities in Yemen to
design and implement appropriate neonatal policies to urgently address causes
of neonatal deaths across the country. Strategies should focus on improving the
quality, affordability and accessibility of maternal and neonatal healthcare
services.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 519-526
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