International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Calculating Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Thailand Using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Thailand from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (3,2,4) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal mortality will remain low throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage policymakers to design local policies that will address various challenges affecting different parts of the country so as to keep neonatal mortality under control.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 475-481

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708069

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References

  1. Box, D. E., and Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, Holden Day, London.
  2. Nyoni, T. (2018). Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting net FDI Inflows in Zimbabwe, University Library of Munich, MPRA Paper No. 87737.
  3. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  4. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
  5. UNICEF (2019). Child Mortality 2019. New York: United Nations Children’s Fund.
  6. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda
  7. Countdown 2030, Thailand.

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