Demonstrating How to Use Forecasts Generated by Holt’s Linear Method to Craft Appropriate and Evidence Based Neonatal Healthcare Policies in Libya

This study employs annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Libya from 1972 to 2021 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2022 to 2030. Holt’s linear method (HLM) was used in this study. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The study findings suggest that neonatal mortality will continue to decline to reach levels below 5 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030.Therefore, it is important for the Libyan authorities to focus on rebuilding health infrastructure and capacitating primary healthcare facilities so that they are able to offer basic &emergency obstetric and essential neonatal care.