Demonstrating How to Use Forecasts Generated by Holt’s Linear Method to Craft Appropriate and Evidence Based Neonatal Healthcare Policies in Libya
Abstract
This study employs annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Libya from 1972 to 2021 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2022 to 2030. Holt’s linear method (HLM) was used
in this study. Optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.9 and 0.1
respectively based on minimum MSE. The study findings suggest that neonatal
mortality will continue to decline to reach levels below 5 deaths per 1000 live
births by the end of 2030.Therefore, it is important for the Libyan authorities
to focus on rebuilding health infrastructure and capacitating primary
healthcare facilities so that they are able to offer basic &emergency
obstetric and essential neonatal care.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 341-345
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