Demonstrating how to Apply the ARIMA Model to Determine Expected Future Annual Neonatal Mortality Rates for Uganda
Abstract
The general global decline of under-five
mortality is a clear testimony that all UN member states are united in their
fight against causes of morbidity and mortality among under-fives across all
regions. However, neonatal deaths remain a cause for concern as many low-middle
income countries are going to miss their set SDG-3 target 3.2 by the end of
2030.New ideas are required to address this issue to end all preventable deaths
by the end of 2030.This study uses annual time series data on neonatal
mortality rate (NMR) for Uganda from 1965 to 2019 to predict future trends of
NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series
under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the
ARIMA (2,1,2) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal
mortality will gradually decline from around 19 to approximately 13 deaths per
1000 live births by the end of 2030. We, therefore encourage the Ugandan
authorities to craft local maternal and child health policies that will
effectively address the deaths of newborns during the first month of life. The
authorities should promote institutional deliveries, increase coverage of
family planning services and provide incentives for medical staff retention
especially those working in rural areas.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 497-504
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