Designing and Implementing Effective Neonatal Healthcare Policies in Haiti Using Empirical Evidence from the ARIMA Model

Haiti is struggling to control neonatal mortality as a result of existing challenges such as poverty, inaccessible healthcare services, poor road infrastructure and shortage of medical staff. Neonatal healthcare solutions must address these problems at all levels of the health delivery system. Utilizing forecasts generated by the ARIMA model is expected to inform neonatal health policies and allocation of resources to the maternal and child health program in the country. This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Haiti from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (4,1,2) model. The findings of this study suggest that neonatal mortality will gradually decrease from around 25 to approximately 17 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore, Haitian authorities should formulate appropriate neonatal policies that are meant to improve access to quality neonatal healthcare and ensure availability of medical staff &supplies. Neonatal healthcare program strategies should include regular refresher courses on basic & emergency essential newborn and obstetric care at all levels of the health delivery system.