Designing and Implementing Effective Neonatal Healthcare Policies in Haiti Using Empirical Evidence from the ARIMA Model
Abstract
Haiti is struggling to control neonatal
mortality as a result of existing challenges such as poverty, inaccessible
healthcare services, poor road infrastructure and shortage of medical staff.
Neonatal healthcare solutions must address these problems at all levels of the
health delivery system. Utilizing forecasts generated by the ARIMA model is
expected to inform neonatal health policies and allocation of resources to the
maternal and child health program in the country. This study uses annual time
series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Haiti from 1960 to 2019 to
predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have
shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal
model based on AIC is the ARIMA (4,1,2) model. The findings of this study
suggest that neonatal mortality will gradually decrease from around 25 to
approximately 17 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore,
Haitian authorities should formulate appropriate neonatal policies that are
meant to improve access to quality neonatal healthcare and ensure availability
of medical staff &supplies. Neonatal healthcare program strategies should
include regular refresher courses on basic & emergency essential newborn
and obstetric care at all levels of the health delivery system.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 286-290
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