Detection of Anticipated Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rates for Mauritania Using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Mauritania from 1960 to 2019 to predict
future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown
that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model
based on AIC is the ARIMA (5,1,4) model. The study findings indicate that
neonatal mortality will gradually decline from approximately 31 in 2020 to
around 27 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore, Health
authorities are encouraged to formulate country specific neonatal policies that
will help to address local causes of neonatal mortality.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 356-363
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