Detection of Anticipated Future Values of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rates for Mauritania Using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA Model

This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Mauritania from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (5,1,4) model. The study findings indicate that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from approximately 31 in 2020 to around 27 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore, Health authorities are encouraged to formulate country specific neonatal policies that will help to address local causes of neonatal mortality.