Determination of Anticipated Future Trends of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Jamaica Using the ARIMA Model

This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Jamaica from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,1,5) model. The study findings revealed that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from around 9 in 2020 to 4 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore, the Jamaican government should continuously provide adequate funding to maternal and child health programs and address local problems affecting neonatal healthcare programs in the country.