International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

Impact Factor (2025): 6.9

DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Determination of Anticipated Future Trends of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Jamaica Using the ARIMA Model

Abstract

This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Jamaica from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,1,5) model. The study findings revealed that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from around 9 in 2020 to 4 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore, the Jamaican government should continuously provide adequate funding to maternal and child health programs and address local problems affecting neonatal healthcare programs in the country.

Country : Zimbabwe

1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI

  1. ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
  2. Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 309-313

doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708045

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References

  1. Box, D. E., and Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control, Holden Day, London.
  2. Nyoni, T. (2018). Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach to Predicting net FDI Inflows in Zimbabwe, University Library of Munich, MPRA Paper No. 87737.
  3. WHO (2018). Jamaica country cooperation strategy at a glance, 1-2.
  4. World Health Organization (WHO) (2019). SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages.
  5. UNICEF (2018). Every Child alive. New York: UNICEF
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  7. UN (2020) sustainable development goals. https://www.un.org/sustainabl development/development-agenda.

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