Drafting and Implementing Appropriate Neonatal Healthcare Solutions in Senegal Using Forecasts Generated By the ARIMA Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Senegal from 1960 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (2,1,2) model. The study results indicate that neonatal mortality
will gradually decline from 21 in 2020 to 18 deaths per 1000 live births by the
end of 2030. It is therefore important for the government to address local
drivers of mortality among neonates.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 438-444
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