Employing ARIMA Model Forecasts to Inform Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare Initiatives in Egypt
Abstract
The success of maternal and child health
programs is dependent on political commitment, availability of resources and an
enabling environment with peace and security. In addition sustainable
agricultural practices, poverty reduction, sustainable governance and
prevention of environmental degradation are key elements to achieve universal
health coverage. Focusing on the reduction of neonatal mortality is crucial at
this juncture as evidence indicates that the decline of neonatal deaths
especially in low-middle income countries is not sufficient enough to reach the
desired target by the end of 2030.This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Egypt from 1960 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (3,1,0) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal
mortality will gradually decline from around 11 to around 4 deaths per 1000
live births in the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage Egyptian
authorities to address local factors that contribute to deaths among neonates.
Particular attention should be given to regular training of healthcare workers
on essential newborn care, health education among communities to address
various issues which contribute to neonatal mortality, and medical staff
retention at all levels of healthcare.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 266-270
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