Employment of ARIMA Model Forecasts to Design Effective Neonatal Healthcare Policies in Ghana
Abstract
By the end of 2030 all UN member states are
expected to achieve a neonatal mortality rate of at least 12 deaths per 1000
live births. However many African countries are likely going to miss their
targets as a result of existing challenges such as poverty, hunger, climate
change effects and economic hardships. New innovations are required to tackle
neonatal deaths especially in the rural areas where patients travel long distances
to access healthcare services. In addition, shortage of human resources and
inadequate medical supplies contribute to poor quality service provision. This
research uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for
Ghana from 1965 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to
2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I
(2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (5,2,0) model. ARIMA
model projections indicate that neonatal mortality will
gradually decline from around 22 to approximately 16 deaths per 1000 live
births by the end of 2030. Therefore, neonatal policies must address geographic
and socio-economic factors that aggravate neonatal mortality.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 276-280
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