Generating Reliable and Accurate Forecasts of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Nepal Using the ARIMA Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Nepal from 1960 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (4,1,3) model. The study findings indicate that neonatal mortality
will gradually decline from around 19 in 2020 to approximately 14 deaths per
1000 live births by 2030. Therefore, we encourage the government of Nepal to
design local policies to address various maternal and child health program
challenges to keep neonatal deaths under control.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 382-389
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