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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Generating Reliable and Accurate Forecasts of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Nepal Using the ARIMA Model

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 8 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 | Pages: 382-389

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-09-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708057

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Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Nepal from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (4,1,3) model. The study findings indicate that neonatal mortality will gradually decline from around 19 in 2020 to approximately 14 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030. Therefore, we encourage the government of Nepal to design local policies to address various maternal and child health program challenges to keep neonatal deaths under control.
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Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Generating Reliable and Accurate Forecasts of Annual Neonatal Mortality Rate for Nepal Using the ARIMA Model” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, pp 382-389, August 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708057  

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