Highlighting Future Trends of Neonatal Mortality in Morocco Using Forecast Values Generated By the ARIMA Model
Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Morocco from 1960 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (5,2,4) model. The study findings indicate that neonatal mortality
is expected to gradually decline to levels below the global SDG target of 12
deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030.Therefore, we implore the
Moroccan health authorities to come up with country specific neonatal policies
that will address the challenge of neonatal mortality with special attention being
given to channeling more resources to primary healthcare, retention of
healthcare workers and strengthening the referral system.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 369-373
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