How to Utilize Forecasts Produced by the ARIMA Model to Solve Persistently High Neonatal Mortality Rates in Mali

Ending all avoidable neonatal deaths by the end of 2030 is the focus of SDG-3 target 3.2.The current progress made on the reduction of neonatal deaths in Mali is not impressive due to a number of reasons which include poverty and political unrest. This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Mali from 1964 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (1,1,5) model. The study results showed that neonatal mortality is expected to gradually decline but will remain high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, health authorities in Mali are encouraged to draft and implement local policies that can effectively address neonatal mortality with focus being given to medical staff retention, availing adequate medical supplies at all levels of care and regular training of medical staff on basic &emergency obstetric and essential newborn care.