How to Utilize Forecasts Produced by the ARIMA Model to Solve Persistently High Neonatal Mortality Rates in Mali
Abstract
Ending all avoidable neonatal deaths by the end
of 2030 is the focus of SDG-3 target 3.2.The current progress made on the
reduction of neonatal deaths in Mali is not impressive due to a number of
reasons which include poverty and political unrest. This study uses annual time
series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Mali from 1964 to 2019 to
predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have
shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal
model based on AIC is the ARIMA (1,1,5) model. The study results showed that
neonatal mortality is expected to gradually decline but will remain high
throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, health authorities in Mali are
encouraged to draft and implement local policies that can effectively address
neonatal mortality with focus being given to medical staff retention, availing
adequate medical supplies at all levels of care and regular training of medical
staff on basic &emergency obstetric and essential newborn care.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 351-355
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