Implementing Evidence Based Neonatal Healthcare Strategies to Curb High Neonatal Mortality Rates in Pakistan
Abstract
Pakistan has the third highest neonatal
mortality rates in the world and is known for reporting the worst perinatal
mortality rates in South Asia. This study uses annual time series data on
neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Pakistan from 1960 to 2019 to predict future
trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the
series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC
is the ARIMA (3,1,0) model. ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal
mortality will continue to decline but still remain very high throughout the
out of sample period. It is therefore crucial for authorities in Pakistan to
design neonatal health policies which are country specific and appropriate to
tackle worrisome trends of neonatal mortality. In addition, it is very
important for authorities to channel adequate resources particularly to primary
health care facilities in the rural areas where the problem of neonatal deaths
is huge. Special attention should be given to promotion of institutional
deliveries, providing adequate medical supplies and availing funds to retain
medical staff.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 390-397
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