Implementing Informed Neonatal Healthcare Policies in Botswana through Utilization of the ARIMA Model
Abstract
Statistical time series forecasting approaches
continue to attract the attention of many public health specialists as they
have been proven to be useful in guiding policy-making
and allocation of resources to maternal and child health programs in any
country. This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate
(NMR) for Botswana from 1965 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the
period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under
consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA
(2,1,1) model. The ARIMA model predictions indicate that neonatal mortality is
expected to drop to levels below 12 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of
2030. Therefore, the government of Botswana is encouraged to focus on improving
the quality of healthcare services during antenatal, delivery and postnatal
periods.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 217-224
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