Making Use of ARIMA Model Forecasts to Reconfigure Current Neonatal Health Policies to Address High Neonatal Mortality Rates in Kenya
Abstract
Aggressive maternal and neonatal healthcare
policies and interventions are required in scaling up efforts to address
neonatal mortality in low-middle income countries. Novel approaches should take
into account existing challenges and various needs of different populations. In
addition, it is important to respect and recognize local traditions or
cultures. Achieving set targets for health-related SDGs will accelerate
progress towards achieving substantial reduction of maternal, under-five and neonatal mortality. This study utilizes annual time
series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Kenya from 1960 to 2019 to
predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have
shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal
model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,1,2) model. The findings of this research
revealed that neonatal mortality will decline from approximately 21 in 2020 to
around 17 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore, we implore
Kenyan policy makers to design appropriate neonatal policies to address major
drivers of mortality in neonates and such strategies should improve the quality
of health care services during ANC, delivery and postnatal periods.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 321-328
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