Making Use of ARIMA Model Forecasts to Reconfigure Current Neonatal Health Policies to Address High Neonatal Mortality Rates in Kenya

Aggressive maternal and neonatal healthcare policies and interventions are required in scaling up efforts to address neonatal mortality in low-middle income countries. Novel approaches should take into account existing challenges and various needs of different populations. In addition, it is important to respect and recognize local traditions or cultures. Achieving set targets for health-related SDGs will accelerate progress towards achieving substantial reduction of maternal, under-five and neonatal mortality. This study utilizes annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Kenya from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (2,1,2) model. The findings of this research revealed that neonatal mortality will decline from approximately 21 in 2020 to around 17 deaths per 1000 live births by the end of 2030. Therefore, we implore Kenyan policy makers to design appropriate neonatal policies to address major drivers of mortality in neonates and such strategies should improve the quality of health care services during ANC, delivery and postnatal periods.