Making Use of ARIMA Model Predictions to Inform Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare Policies in the United States of America
Abstract
Neonatal mortality remains a global health
problem hence public health interventions must be designed to address this
challenge. Efforts must be directed to improve the quality of healthcare
services during antenatal, delivery and postnatal periods. This research uses
annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for USA from 1968 to
2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root
tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. The
optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (0,2,1) model. The ARIMA model
predictions indicate that neonatal mortality is expected to hover around 3 deaths
per 1000 live births throughout the out of sample period. Hence, the US
government should address various maternal and child health challenges existing
in different parts of the country to keep neonatal mortality under control.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 512-518
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