Making Use of Forecasts Produced By the ARIMA Model to Attend to Various Neonatal Healthcare Challenges in the Philippines
Abstract
Neonatal mortality is an indication of the
quality of healthcare services during antenatal, delivery and postnatal
periods. Main causes of neonatal mortality in the Philippines are prematurity,
asphyxia & birth trauma and congenital malformations. Neonatal healthcare
policies should be informed by research evidence, hence this study utilizes the
Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology to detect future trends of neonatal mortality
using annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for the
Philippines from 1960 to 2019to predict future trends of NMR over the period
2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is
an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (3,1,1) model.
The study results indicate that neonatal mortality will gradually decline
throughout the forecast period to reach levels as low as 8 deaths per 1000 live
births by the end of 2030. It is crucial for authorities in the Philippines to
address local factors that contribute significantly to adverse maternal and
neonatal health outcomes such as lack of medical equipment and inadequate
healthcare.
Country : Zimbabwe
1 Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI2 Thabani NYONI
ZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe
Independent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe
IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 pp. 414-421
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